The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) condo market in 2025 is in uncharted territory. Following years of strong growth, the landscape has shifted sharply in favor of buyers. High inventory, stagnant demand, falling prices, and sluggish sales have created an extremely challenging market for condo sellers. Meanwhile, future projections for 2026 and 2027 suggest a slow but steady path to stabilization.
This blog breaks down the current state of the market, what sellers are facing, and what to expect in the next two years.
🏢 2025: A Condo Market in Correction
The GTA condo market has entered a period of correction:
- Sales Down: Condo sales dropped by ~22% in Q1 2025 compared to the same time last year. Core Toronto was hit even harder, with downtown resale activity falling by nearly 15%.
- Prices Falling: Condo prices have dipped across the board. In Toronto, the average cost per square foot fell from $1,689 to $1,524, with further price declines of 5–7% expected by year-end.
- Rising Inventory: Active resale condo listings surged past 10,000 units in early 2025, with another 23,900 unsold new units in the pipeline. This is the highest condo inventory the region has seen in years.
- Pre-Construction Collapse: New condo sales have plummeted by 70% year-over-year, while new condo starts dropped by 79%—the lowest since the 1990s.
🤯 What Condo Sellers Are Facing in 2025
Condo sellers in the GTA are under significant pressure. Here’s what the experience looks like on the ground:
🕓 Longer Days on Market
- The average condo listing now stays on the market for 29 days, up from 25 days last year.
- Many listings are sitting even longer without serious buyer interest.
❌ Listings Pulled Without Selling
- A growing number of listings are being withdrawn or terminated, as sellers choose to wait rather than accept lower prices.
- Developers have cancelled over 5,700 condo units in early 2025 due to weak demand—an indicator of broader market distress.
👀 Lack of Showings
- Showings have dried up. Many sellers report just 1–2 showings per month—a sharp contrast to the 2021–2022 market when dozens of showings were common.
- This low buyer activity reflects caution due to high interest rates, oversupply, and economic uncertainty.
📉 Sales-to-New-Listing Ratio (SNLR)
- The SNLR sits between 29–34%, meaning fewer than 1 in 3 listings actually result in a sale.
📊 Key Stats at a Glance (Mid-2025)
| Metric | Current Value (2025) |
|---|---|
| Active resale condo listings | 10,000–12,000+ |
| Unsold new condo units | ~23,900 |
| Avg. Days on Market | 29 days |
| Listings sold vs. new listed | ~29–34% SNLR |
| Showings per listing/month | Often just 1–2 |
| Condo price trend | Down ~7–10% YoY |
| New condo starts (Q1) | Down 79% YoY |
🧭 Outlook for 2026: Stabilization Ahead?
While 2025 is a rough year for sellers, there is some optimism beginning in 2026:
- Interest Rates May Ease: As the Bank of Canada lowers rates, borrowing becomes more affordable—potentially drawing buyers back to the market.
- Slowdown in New Supply: The collapse in pre-construction sales today means fewer new condos will be completed in 2026 and 2027, which helps reduce oversupply.
- Market Absorption Improves: Fewer new listings combined with slowly increasing demand may start absorbing the current inventory backlog.
Still, expect prices to remain flat for much of 2026 before any significant appreciation returns.
📈 2027: Return to Balance?
By 2027, the market may be in better shape:
- Supply Tightens: The dramatic drop in new construction in 2025 will create a lagged shortage in completed units.
- Prices Begin Recovering: With lower interest rates, stronger job growth, and pent-up demand, the GTA condo market could enter a modest price recovery phase.
- Inventory Normalizes: As listings get absorbed and sellers return with better strategies, the days on market and SNLR could both improve.
✅ Final Takeaways for Sellers & Buyers
Sellers:
- It’s a challenging market. Be prepared for longer listing times, fewer showings, and potential price reductions.
- Strategic pricing and strong marketing are essential.
- Consider renting out your unit short-term if you can’t sell now.
Buyers:
- This is a prime opportunity to negotiate and find deals—especially in areas with high supply.
- Watch for developer incentives on pre-construction purchases.
- Keep an eye on interest rates—locking in at lower rates in late 2025 or 2026 could be ideal.
🏁 Final Thoughts
The GTA condo market in 2025 is firmly in correction territory, but there’s light at the end of the tunnel. If you’re selling, now’s the time to be flexible, smart, and patient. If you’re buying, it may be one of the most favorable windows in a decade.
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